Understanding the Electoral College

November 5 2020

Can a presidential candidate still become a president even if they lose the popular votes?

The answer is yes, and that’s because of the “Electoral College.” Everyone who followed the Trump vs Clinton presidential elections in 2016 knows that Clinton won the majority of votes, yet it was Donald Trump who became a president because he won in the electoral college.

Also in 2000, it was Al Gore who won the popular vote, yet George W. Bush gained more electoral votes after a contested Florida recount and a supreme court decision. The same thing happened in 1888, where Benjamin Harrison defeated Grover Cleveland in the electoral college even though he lost the popular vote.

The Electoral college also awarded presidency John Quincy Adams and Rutherford B. Hayes in the elections of 1824 and 1876.

What is the Electoral College?

Unlike what the term might suggest for most people who are unfamiliar with the US elections, this is not a college in the sense of a “School” or an “Educational Institution.” The electoral college is an assembly of electors who represent the 50 states in America.

These electors are selected every four years a couple of months prior to the election day by their respective state’s political parties. They meet on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of December in an election year, then they cast the ballots for the president.

Note: Under the “Electoral College” process, each state holds a certain number of “votes.” There are a total of 538 electoral votes, and each state has a number of votes depending on the size of its population.

How did this the Electoral College evolve?

The Electoral College was founded in 1787 under the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia. The founders wanted to create a mechanism that does not only depend on popular majorities or congress.

When I interviewed Sue KopenKatcef who is an award-winning veteran broadcast journalist, I asked her “What is the point of the electoral college? Why are things that complicated?”

She pointed out that after US independence, the founders created the electoral college for two reasons.

First, they somewhat believed that people were not smart or informed enough to decide solely by themselves, so there has to be an elite involved in the process.

Second, it was created to give more power and recognition to small states.

And when I asked, “Isn’t there a fear that those electors in the electoral college could be bought?”

She said that there are laws in many states that oblige the electors to vote the same way their state voted, and it is very very rare where electors break their pledges.

It’s worth noting that there has been a lot of complaints against the electoral college. Prior to the ratification of the 12th amendment in 1804, candidates who received the second highest number of electoral votes became vice presidents.

When will the Electoral College vote take place?

It is usually the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December on the year of the presidential elections. That’s when electors meet and vote. In 2020, this date is going to be Monday 14 December 2020.

Author: Abdelwahab Ait Tayeb.

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How Often Does the Presidential Debate Change People’s Minds?

October 4 2020

Presidential debate, US elections

The US presidential debate is a big event that most American voters feel excited about every four years. It sets the stage for the candidates to defend their ideas on the country’s on-going issues, past experience in office if applicable, and argue for their projects in order to earn Americans’ support.

The US elections debate is not something required by law, It has only become a campaign tradition since 1976. Candidates have all the right to refuse or accept to debate their opponents. In 1980, Jimmy Carter declined the request to debate Ronald Reagan and John B Anderson nine days before the elections believing that a three-way debate would have strengthened Anderson’s campaign. Ronald Reagan performed very well in the first debate against Anderson, and this helped propel Reagan into a landslide victory.

The elections debates are high stakes for the candidates, especially when thinking about how the effect of their debate performance may have on the outcome of the election or the public image of the candidates in the mind of the voters. However, we often think that debates serve the interest of voters and usually change people’s minds, but to what extent can we say that this is true?

A summarized answer is… Hmm, it depends.

According to Dr. Mitchell McKinney, who is an international expert on presidential debates and has been studying debates since the late 1980s, the factors that must be in play to magnify the importance of the debates are:

1/_When the race between the candidates appears close enough.

2/_When enough voters remain undecided about who to vote for.

Do debates really matter? Do they change the outcome of the elections?

“We found that as high as 90 to 95% of all debate viewers come to the debate, particularly at this stage in this long election, as we’re just now weeks, days before the election with their minds made up and particularly in a polarized electorate, as we have here in the US committed to one candidate or the other, and those minds typically aren’t changed.” Said Dr. Mitchell Mckinney

In American Politics, the term “Swing State” and “battleground state” refer to a state that can be reasonably won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate by a swing in votes. The voters from these states can also be “The persuadable”. The condition that governs the battleground states are usually different in comparison with other states, and that is usually noticed in polls.

In the 2020 US Elections, for example, the polls currently show that Joe Biden has a modest national leads in some states with perhaps five or six points. However, when you drill down to the battleground states, you see a number of those swing states with perhaps Biden or Trump up by only one point or half a point like Florida or North Carolina. Therefore, when the debate is close enough, and there is enough undecided voters, the debate becomes very consequential in the outcome of the elections.

us-elections

Understanding the Electoral College

Can a presidential candidate still become a president even if they lose the popular votes?

What is the Electoral College?

How did this the Electoral College evolve?

When will the Electoral College vote take place?

Author: Abdelwahab Ait Tayeb.

Read also:

How Often Does the Presidential Debate Change People’s Minds?

Do debates really matter? Do they change the outcome of the elections?

Author: Abdelwahab Ait Tayeb.